Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Niña in the Past Decade     

Ning JIANG  Congwen ZHU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(1):147-155

It has been suggested that a warm(cold)ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late(early)onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)in spring.Our results show this positive relationship,which is mainly determined by their phase correlation,has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011,due to the disturbance of cold tongue(CT)La Ni?a events.Different from its canonical counterpart,a CT La Ni?a event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific.Owing to the increased Indian?western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Ni?a events,empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.  相似文献   

Cause of Extreme Heavy and Persistent Rainfall over Yangtze River in Summer 2020     

Xiao PAN  Tim LI  Ying SUN  Zhiwei ZHU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(12):1994-2009

Record-breaking heavy and persistent precipitation occurred over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) in June-July (JJ) 2020. An observational data analysis has indicated that the strong and persistent rainfall arose from the confluence of southerly wind anomalies to the south associated with an extremely strong anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNPAC) and northeasterly anomalies to the north associated with a high-pressure anomaly over Northeast Asia. A further observational and modeling study has shown that the extremely strong WNPAC was caused by both La Ni?a-like SST anomaly (SSTA) forcing in the equatorial Pacific and warm SSTA forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO). Different from conventional central Pacific (CP) El Ni?os that decay slowly, a CP El Ni?o in early 2020 decayed quickly and became a La Ni?a by early summer. This quick transition had a critical impact on the WNPAC. Meanwhile, an unusually large area of SST warming occurred in the tropical IO because a moderate interannual SSTA over the IO associated with the CP El Ni?o was superposed by an interdecadal/long-term trend component. Numerical sensitivity experiments have demonstrated that both the heating anomaly in the IO and the heating anomaly in the tropical Pacific contributed to the formation and maintenance of the WNPAC. The persistent high-pressure anomaly in Northeast Asia was part of a stationary Rossby wave train in the midlatitudes, driven by combined heating anomalies over India, the tropical eastern Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic.  相似文献   

The Extreme Mei-yu Season in 2020: Role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Cooperative Influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans※     

Ping LIANG  Zeng-Zhen HU  Yihui DING  Qiwen QIAN 《大气科学进展》2021,38(12):2040-2054

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in eastern China during summer 2020 suffered the strongest mei-yu since 1961. In this work, we comprehensively analyzed the mechanism of the extreme mei-yu season in 2020, with focuses on the combined effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the cooperative influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans in 2020 and from a historical perspective. The prediction and predictability of the extreme mei-yu are further investigated by assessing the performances of the climate model operational predictions and simulations. 　 It is noted that persistent MJO phases 1?2 during June?July 2020 played a crucial role for the extreme mei-yu by strengthening the western Pacific subtropical high. Both the development of La Ni?a conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical Indian Ocean exerted important influences on the long-lived MJO phases 1?2 by slowing down the eastward propagation of the MJO and activating convection related to the MJO over the tropical Indian Ocean. The spatial distribution of the 2020 mei-yu can be qualitatively captured in model real-time forecasts with a one-month lead. This can be attributed to the contributions of both the tropical Indian Ocean warming and La Ni?a development. Nevertheless, the mei-yu rainfall amounts are seriously underestimated. Model simulations forced with observed SST suggest that internal processes of the atmosphere play a more important role than boundary forcing (e.g., SST) in the variability of mei-yu anomaly, implying a challenge in quantitatively predicting an extreme mei-yu season, like the one in 2020.  相似文献   

Response of Growing Season Gross Primary Production to El Ni?o in Different Phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over Eastern China Based on Bayesian Model Averaging     

Yueyue LI  Li DAN  Jing PENG  Junbang WANG  Fuqiang YANG  Dongdong GAO  Xiujing YANG  Qiang YU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(9):1580-1595

Gross primary production (GPP) plays a crucial part in the carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. A set of validated monthly GPP data from 1957 to 2010 in 0.5° × 0.5° grids of China was weighted from the Multi-scale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project using Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The spatial anomalies of detrended BMA GPP during the growing seasons of typical El Ni?o years indicated that GPP response to El Ni?o varies with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases: when the PDO was in the cool phase, it was likely that GPP was greater in northern China (32°–38°N, 111°–122°E) and less in the Yangtze River valley (28°–32°N, 111°–122°E); in contrast, when PDO was in the warm phase, the GPP anomalies were usually reversed in these two regions. The consistent spatiotemporal pattern and high partial correlation revealed that rainfall dominated this phenomenon. The previously published findings on how El Ni?o during different phases of PDO affecting rainfall in eastern China make the statistical relationship between GPP and El Ni?o in this study theoretically credible. This paper not only introduces an effective way to use BMA in grids that have mixed plant function types, but also makes it possible to evaluate the carbon cycle in eastern China based on the prediction of El Ni?o and PDO.  相似文献   

Proposed scheme for modeling of ocean equatorial currents in the phase of El Niño and La Niña: Implementation of the mesoscale turbulence theory     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

El Niño is a phenomenon of the catastrophic increase of surface temperature in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. It has a significant impact to weather of the American continent and western regions of the tropical Pacific, as well as on the weather and climate of entirely the Earth. Most important factors influencing El Niño are the wind, ocean currents and slope of the water surface (and temperature resulting from these factors) at the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The paper considers results of mathematical modeling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean currents in the El Niño and La Niña phases using the theory of mesoscale turbulence. This theory has been successfully tested in modeling of global circulation of atmosphere and ocean (Arsen’yev et al., 2010) and it has been able to calculate the ocean current changes at equator under changing external conditions. It is shown that the water currents at the equator have a four-tier vertical structure. The surface trade-wind current is located above the subsurface undercurrent, below which we observe the intermediate current, turning into the equatorial deep counter flow. When El Niño begins, the currents are rearranged, change signs and sometimes merge with each other. In the phase of maximum development of the phenomenon there is a two-tier structure: (1) surface current heading the American coast is underlain (below the depth of 440 m) by (2) deep equatorial current directed to the Indonesian coast. The theoretical calculations are compared with the physical observations of ocean currents in the El Niño and La Niña phases. The obtained results indicate that the proposed mathematical apparatus makes it possible to explain the set of physical observations in the Pacific Ocean.  相似文献   

Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Nino in Comparison with Other Super El Nino Events     

Xuben LEI  Wenjun ZHANG  Pang-Chi HSU  Chao LIU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(4):555-568

Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Nino events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Nino event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)magnitude over the Nino 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Nino events(i.e.,1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Nino event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Nino events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Nino is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature(as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Nino events.As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection.  相似文献   

金平阿德博铜镍矿区王家寨矿段矿床成因探讨     

韦文彪  肖元元  沈良 《云南地质》2011,30(3):285-288

矿床与华力西期超基性一基性一中性岩浆杂岩关系密切,成矿专属性明显。先期矿浆在杂岩体中初步熔离富集,后期矿浆在压力作用下沿断裂贯入,经期后热液改造再富集成矿。  相似文献   

云南金平亚拉寨镍矿矿石组份及其综合利用     

朱启金 《云南地质》2011,30(3):289-293

亚拉寨镍矿属岩浆熔离型与晚期岩浆结晶分异型复合的硫化物矿床。矿体赋存于基性～超基性杂岩体底部,有用元素镍平均0.44ω%,伴生铜、钴等。对矿石组份及其赋存状态研究后,提出综合利用建议。  相似文献   

Influence of ENSO variability on sinking-particle fluxes in the northeastern equatorial Pacific     

Hyung Jeek Kim 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2011,58(8):865-874

A time-series sediment trap was operated from July 2003 to July 2008 at a station located in the 10°N thermocline ridge of the northeastern equatorial Pacific (10°30′N, 131°20′W), with the aim of understanding variations in natural background sinking-particle flux and the influence on such fluxes of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Each one of weak El Niño, moderate El Niño and moderate La Niña were observed during the monitoring period. During non-ENSO periods, total mass fluxes varied from 4.1 to 36.9 mg m⁻² d⁻¹, with a distinct seasonal variation, ranging from an average flux of 14.0 mg m⁻² d⁻¹ in the warm season (June-November) to 25.3 mg m⁻² d⁻¹ in the cold season (December-May). This seasonal fluctuation was characterized by a distinct difference in CaCO₃ flux between the two seasons. The enhanced particle fluxes during the cold season are attributed to the supply of nutrient-enriched subsurface water by wind-driven vertical mixing, supported by a simultaneous reduction in sea surface temperature and enhanced trade winds. The weak El Niño event occurred in the monitoring period had no recognizable effect on particle fluxes in the study area, but the moderate El Niño event was accompanied by a significant reduction in particle fluxes to 60% of the average background value in the warm season. In contrast, particle fluxes during the moderate La Niña increased to a maximum value of 129.9 mg m⁻² d⁻¹, almost three times the average background value. Organic carbon and biogenic silica fluxes were most sensitive to the El Niño and La Niña conditions. The observed variations of particle fluxes are synchronized with those of chlorophyll-a, suggesting primary productivity for the main cause of flux change. The present data indicate that marked seasonal variability in background fluxes commonly exceeds the variability associated with ENSO and post-ENSO signals, which should be taken into account when evaluating the influence of ENSO on sinking particle fluxes in the 10°N thermocline ridge area.  相似文献   

山东冬季冷暖年气候特征及其成因分析     

迟竹萍  孟祥新  高理 《海洋预报》2015,32(3):29-35

利用1951—2013年山东122个气象观测站资料,分析山东冬季气温演变特征以及异常冷暖年相对应的大气环流异常。结果表明:山东冬季气温的年代际变化特征明显,冬季变暖的时间是从20世纪80年代中期开始,突变年为1986年;冬季异常冷暖年,乌拉尔山高压脊存在明显差异;在500 h Pa高度距平场上欧亚大陆呈反位相分布,异常冷年极强负距平中心位于贝加尔湖附近,山东处于负距平区底部;异常暖年,正距平中心位于巴尔喀什湖附近,山东处于正距平中。另据分析,冬季拉尼娜事件发生,和山东冬季气温偏冷有较好的关联性;并发现冬季气温与前期7月Nino3区海温正相关最好。  相似文献